Sunday 25 December 2016

NOTES FROM A BAN

the RBI has gotten `13.2L crores till December 13. Out of the remarkable `1.2L crores about `3040,000 crore is in neighboring nations, for example, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, where India rupees are generally utilized. Furthermore, our NRI brethren and cousins have a comparable sum. The rest is likely for the most part with exceptionally needy individuals somewhere down in the hinterland who most presumably don't have a clue about that their painstakingly concealed high-esteem notes are no more drawn out substantial for trade. So, best case scenario the administration may get `30,000 crore rather than the bonus of `4-5L crores powers appeared to trust they would get.

So what did these `30,000 crore cost to get? The new notes itself will cost an enormous sum considering that `500 and `2,000 notes cost about `4 and `6 each to print and convey. Be that as it may, there are different costs, which are far more prominent. The unexpected withdrawal of money for all intents and purposes annihilated the day by day wage economy that is around 200-250 million in number out of the sloppy division's 415 million. The normal every day wage a year ago was `272 per head. This cash is scarcely enough to nourish and give the most fundamental things to a group of five. Envision what number of occupations have been lost.

Early gauges recommend that right around 80-100 million day by day wage specialists are without work. Millions have backpedaled home to their towns in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Assam. I was as of late in UP and Bihar and the obliteration to the provincial economy is discernable.

Charge card spending has dropped from `55,000 crore in October to `32,000 crore in November, however the quantity of exchanges have gone up colossally. Most financial experts, including the greatest market analyst of all, Dr. Manmohan Singh concurred that we are set to lose around two for every penny of our GDP. That implies about `2.5L crore. Gross domestic product lost will be lost everlastingly so it is a cost. At the point when the count is altogether done, it will most likely be substantially more than that.

Arvind Panagariya, the top sarkari market analyst, representing the Demonetization concurs that "supply chains" have been disturbed however new ones will recover, as happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. This is an appalling and frail relationship. Katrina was a demonstration of nature. Demonetisation is a demonstration of absolute ineptitude.

The Prime Minister appears to have understood this. He is currently guilefully making this a crusade for digitalisation or for cashlessness. The truth here is this. In the poorer states like Bihar, UP, MP, Odisha and Assam, the teledensity is around 50 for each penny. The ATM thickness is around one for each 10,000 rather than one for each 3-4000 in states like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra with prevalent managing an account systems. Just 20 for every penny of the ATMs are in the provincial ranges. Advancement here is very alluring, however it will take numerous years. Experts expect we will achieve a wanted level just by 2021.

So why this move of objective posts? One kindred specialist depicted it as all of a sudden exchanging a session of hockey halfway into football. I have a crueler portrayal. I say Digitalisation is only a fig leaf for the fizzled Demonetisation.

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